It's winter, and it's time for Bird Flu to wake up.

Right now, things are very calm. There's a lot of bird disease, and some human disease, but everything seems well controlled. In Indonesia, a hotspot, severe disease is flaring in several different areas, too distant from one another to be caused by ordinary spread. 

Indonesian authorities, however, seem to be handling it differently than before. There's a new veil of secrecy over this Bird Flu outbreak that we haven't seen from them in the past. The financial repercussions for them of this disease have been crushing, especially in terms of tourism, so this isn't surprising. The only thing that's prevented a Pandemic so far is the total involvement of world health organizations in the control of this pathogen in their country.

Many countries seem to be using the technique that has worked well for China: Just don't tell. It's complicated by something else, too: These individual countries want to OWN the viral sequences that start a pandemic, since this will be the basis of a future vaccine. Their own self-interest has created an environment of secrecy. The moral of this is hat we aren't going to have any notice if a pandemic starts!

As it begins to cool, viruses begin to become more active. We're seeing a very early resurgence of the virus. Top scientists and physicians recognize the true extent of the problem, and are attempting to keep the word out that a great danger still exists. The virus is continuing to mutate, making human to human infection more likely. The media doesn't really care, it's not a "fad" right now.

Unfortunately, the next time it reaches high profile in the mainstream media, it will be because a pandemic has already started. If you don't have a plan in place by then, it will probably be too late, and you'll have few options open to you.  As we all know, the world situation has changed for the worse since bird flu first appeared. There seem to be a lot more things going on that should convince us to have a better backup plan for disasters of all kinds, including economic breakdown.  

 Here are the facts:

• Bird Flu has crossed the species-barrier and killed hundreds of humans. Infection is definitely of the human-to-human type. Many clusters indicating the human-to-human spread of H5N1 spread have been proven. If you've read otherwise, it's incorrect.
• It has killed over 75% of the people it has infected, even with advanced medical care.  It kills in a similar way to the severe pandemic of 1918 - cytokine dysregulation. H5N1 is VERY widely dispersed. It has been found in animals in countries all over the world.
• At last count over 140 countries are infected. The virus is searching for the mutation/recombination that will give it the key to greater access to humans. Many scientists think the changes of the virus finding that "key", through billions of recombinations, is greater than 50%.
• Close association of hundreds of millions of people with hundreds of millions of infected animals provides many opportunities for adaptation of the virus to humans. H5N1 has already partially adapted to humans, the precursor to pandemic onset. To think it "should have already happened if it was going to", is very naive.

Although we don't know what the kill rate of a pandemic strain of H5N1 will be, there is no reason to think that it will be less than the 1918 pandemic strain and many reasons to think that it will be worse; much worse. Historical arguments are non-scientific and ignore basic virology. Risk assessments of the likely severity of an H5N1 pandemic should be based on the very substantial data that has been collected on this virus and not based on what has happened in previous pandemics with different viruses.

The people who make arguments against the possibility that H5N1 may become a pandemic strain without decreasing its kill rate are almost never virologists. What do real virologists think? Below are the opinions of some of the most eminent virologists who have actually worked with H5N1.

From Dr. Robert Webster, top Avian Influenza researcher:
The H5N1 virus continues to evolve and spread, with additional human infections occurring in Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesian, China, and Thailand. If this virus acquires human-to-human transmissibility with its present fatality rate of 50%, the resulting pandemic would be akin to a global tsunami. If it killed those infected at even a fraction of this rate, the results would be catastrophic.

We cannot afford simply to hope that human-to-human spread of H5N1 will not happen and that, if it does, the pathogenicity of the virus will attenuate. Notably, the precursor of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-associated coronavirus repeatedly crossed species barriers, probably for many years, before it finally acquired the capacity for human-to-human transmission, and its pathogenicity to humans was not attenuated.

From the World Health Organization:
Given the available facts, failing to prepare for a very severe pandemic is irresponsible and likely to result in the deaths of hundreds of millions of people. 

The U.S. media is not very interested, and won't be, until an epidemic begins. 

What happens when the grocery stores close? When the utility workers get sick, could the electricity and water go off? What happens if the police officers, and the truck drivers that take the food to stores, get sick? Will my work close? Will the schools close?

You need extra food, and a way to get clean water when the utilities begin to have problems. You need some masks for when you are forced to go out. You need some lights and a radio, preferably not the kind that depends on batteries. The batteries will be sold out!  Please look at our supply lists. They include most of what you will need, with an eye to budget.

From the U.S. Government:
The United States government is not prepared to provide necessities to every community in this country should a pandemic strike. Nor do most local governments have a pandemic plan to address the needs of their own communities in such a crisis. It will be up to each individual and family to make their own preparations for a pandemic threat that may become reality over the next several months.

What's known is that human-to-human transmission of bird flu is inevitable as the bird-flu virus mutates. All around the world, people are dying. The virus is mutating. The government is playing down the risk right now, to prevent panic and financial repercussions, but in the background is intense preparation.

But they aren't preparing to take care of you; they're preparing to take care of their interest, making sure that the government functions.

This is chilling. What will happen in your life if there is a bird flu pandemic? Will you go to work? Will your kids stay home from school? Will there be food in the stores? Heat? Electricity? Clean water? What if someone in your family gets sick? Some of these are out of our control. But some, you CAN do something about.

The question is: Are you going to prepare for bird flu, or just take the chance that it won't happen.

Here's what the top three bird flu experts say:

"We are in this breathing space before it happens. We do not know how long that breathing space is going to be. But, if we are not all organizing ourselves to get ready and to take action to prepare for a pandemic, then we are squandering an opportunity for our human security"
----- Dr. David Nabarro, World Health Organization, System Senior Coordinator for U.N., Avian and Human Influenza

"If this pandemic happens, God help us all."
------ Dr. Robert Webster director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on the Ecology of Influenza Viruses and the first scientist to show the link between Bird Flu and human flu.

"The situation right now is the most significant setup for a very serious public health crisis that I've seen in my 30 years in this business. We're sitting on a time bomb.
------ Dr. Michael Osterholm, world renowned expert on Bird Flu and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

A bird flu pandemic could hit at anytime. It's just a matter of how big a chance you want to take. The government and the media certainly aren't doing much to help us be ready. And you can probably forget about a vaccine or anti-virals, it's just not going to happen in time, or in the way we had hoped. The people who remain well will do it by avoiding infection. Like many things, the simple solution will be the one that works.

The World Health Organization and the CDC have warned us; the world could be on the brink of the first global pandemic in almost 90 years. The Avian Flu virus could arrive in North America with shocking abruptness. You need to have the facts about Bird Flu, and you need to PLAN NOW for keeping yourself and your family alive and well.

More people died from Bird Flu in 2006 than all of the previous years combined. The possibility of a pandemic is actually increasing, but most Americans seem to have the impression that the danger has passed. Is there a reason for this apparent disconnect? Are Americans being given all of the information they need to prepare for a high-impact event? The fact is, world financial concerns have put a damper on the information we're getting. Talking about Bird Flu has proven to be bad for the economy.

The facts are:

*Humans absolutely can get it from other humans. It's not just passed from birds to humans.

*The first reactions of the population if this disease reached our shores would be predictable. Everyone would rush to the stores to strip the shelves not only of food and water, but also of survival gear. We're already seeing drastically increased purchases of items like the correct kinds of protective masks and water purification systems. The protective mask supply in the U.S. is already reaching a crisis point. Don't wait for the government or the media to tell you what to do. Then it will be too late.

*Reasonable people should be able to imagine that for weeks that each of us could be "on our own" without gasoline, groceries, water, and power. The idea is frightening, but you can manage, just as they did in days past.

*As Americans, we have a tendency to be a bit conceited, to think that bad things only happen in the third world, or to "poor people". Some think they are above a pandemic or other disaster that could interrupt our supply chain. Are we magically protected from the unthinkable? Of course not.

*If there is a snowstorm, humans converge on the grocery stores and strip the shelves of food and water. They act like they'll be trapped in their homes for months. Well, what if they really could be trapped inside for months, either by quarantine or by the choice of saving their lives? The supply of necessities could be gone in the blink of an eye, and the stores could stay empty for weeks. There could be a frightening and sickening competition for food, taking place in an infectious public environment.

*Do you think you will just quickly buy your supplies when a Bird Flu pandemic starts? There are hundreds of thousands of "preppers" who follow and discuss the Avian Flu situation every day. They will be on this website, and in the stores, like birds on bugs, grabbing everything in their path. Even worse for the "late shoppers", U.S. Emergency Planning allows the government to immediately enforce statutes to prevent mass purchasing.

*As soon as there is a North American Bird Flu case, the U.S Emergency Plan will go into place. It doesn't seem like much is going on, but plenty is happening, behind the scenes. Good luck getting your 12-week supply of food when a big old cop is standing there to make sure the store manager limits quantities. To complicate further, since testing for this disease takes a long time, the virus is going to have a really good head start. People in the stores could already be infected.

*Medical supplies will be inadequate and hospitals will be completely overwhelmed. Bird Flu will cause the modern medical system to collapse. Many medical workers have already decided they will go home during a pandemic, rather than expose their families. The hospitals will be hotbeds of disease, so other care for other illnesses will be out of the question. You can see that if hundreds of thousands (or even millions) are gravely ill with Avian Flu, there are not enough hospitals to treat the sick.

*Essential workers in food manufacturing, trucking and delivery, grocery, water and electric utilities, transportation, will go home, either because they are sick or to avoid contagion. Do you think the truck drivers will continue to take your lettuce to the grocery store, or will they go home and "batten down the hatches" to avoid exposure to bird flu and to protect their families from hungry intruders? The electric grid, water company, and other utilities will be in big trouble, almost certain to fail.

*Severe social disruption is going to occur when food shortages begin.

*Will FEMA come to rescue us? I hope we've learned better than to expect that! You need to have a plan now to protect your family. Preparing for bird flu will also prepare you for other possible disasters such as nuclear or biological terrorism, weather disaster, a nuclear incident, earthquake, or a regional disaster. Most don't dwell on the possibility. But we don't want to be foolish, either. We want to prepare to take care of our families. The alternative is too awful to ponder. Remember the New Orleans levee scenario? Everyone knew it would happen eventually. Government and homeowners all knew. What happened? Homeowners behind levees 6' above their heads built or bought houses there and didn't get flood insurance because it was "too expensive". The clues were there, they just didn't want to "see them". Politicians don't want to spend money on things that "might" happen, it just doesn't garner votes.

*To add a further complication, our government may try to enforce quarantines around cities during a bird flu pandemic. This will slow down the spread of the disease. Unfortunately, this could actually make the pandemic last longer, leaving even more households without food.

*In New Orleans, a shocking number of even police officers left their jobs in the emergency. Around the world, during disasters, this has been proven time and time again. Our natural 'wiring' for survival and family protection rules over the greater good. Our survival instincts keep us alive, as they kept our grandfather, and his grandfather, alive. No one wants to die of a horrible disease for a job, nor do they want to expose their family. However distasteful you find this, it's true. It's chilling to think how easily America could be shut down.

*The federal government is telling the states and local communities to get prepared. Local communities and state governments will not be able to handle a bird flu pandemic, not in a million years. Don't count on a disaster worker coming to your door with food and supplies during a pandemic. It won't happen.

It's important to remember: The virus may be hard to get but it's easily transferred. A chicken is slaughtered in Hong Kong. The merchant gets the virus on his hand. His hand touches a 10 yen note, which is touched by 20 people. These 20 people touch their kids. One of the kids eats with his hand that touched the hand that held the 10 yen note. All the other people simply did not get sick because it was not really airborne yet.

The point is, bird flu is far from over. Just stay very alert and keep your preparations in good condition.

We live on an uncertain planet. It's not just about bird flu, either. A disaster could happen at any time. A bit of self-sufficiency is only common sense.

Please use the "send this site to a friend" button at the bottom of the page to send this site to friends, co-workers, and relatives. The more people who prepare, the better for all of us!

It really isn't so hard when you take it one step at a time. You can keep your family safe and secure if you prepare now!  

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